Gartner

Gartner observes that while hyperscalers and software vendors are initially funding enterprise AI adoption, a significant portion of AI infrastructure projects are not fully realizing their return on investment. This suggests a potential disconnect between the projected trillion-dollar investment surge and tangible, widespread financial benefits for organizations. The current vendor-subsidized model may be masking underlying cost inefficiencies and project underperformance.

The firm's analysis indicates that only a minority of AI infrastructure initiatives achieve full payoff, with IT Service Management (ITSM) showing the most promise. This highlights a critical need for enterprises to reassess their AI investment strategies beyond initial vendor incentives. The long-term financial sustainability remains a concern as the market matures and direct operational expenditures for AI integration are expected to rise.

This evolving landscape necessitates proactive financial planning for sustained AI utilization. Organizations must navigate the transition from vendor-supported growth to direct, potentially higher, operational costs. Gartner's ongoing warnings underscore the strategic imperative for businesses to rigorously evaluate AI project viability and ensure alignment with measurable business outcomes to avoid future financial strain.

Last updated April 12, 2026

Coverage

Gartner analysts predict that a significant majority of AI-powered mainframe migration projects will fail, with a substantial percentage of vendors in this sector expected to cease operations.
According to Gartner research, only 28% of artificial intelligence infrastructure projects fully achieve their return on investment, with ITSM being the area most likely to yield positive results.
According to Gartner, software vendors and cloud providers are currently absorbing the projected one trillion dollar increase in artificial intelligence expenditures, but end-users are expected to face long-term cost escalations.